With three games left to play, the race is on for the Top 8 URC places and Champions Cup qualification. The Ospreys find themselves currently in 10 place but there are just 6 points between the Lions in 11th place and the Stormers in 5th place.
The 3 remaining rounds include matches between our Top 8 rivals so every point will be crucial.
I have done a little bit of forecasting and I think the Ospreys need a minimum of 11 points to qualify for the Top 8. We need at least a try BP out in Dublin, 5 points against the Dragons and another 5 points against Cardiff. If we get 10 points, I think it will come down to the points difference between the Ospreys, Connacht and Edinburgh.
What do you think will happen?
So some results have gone our way and we certainly got the 5 points from today.
The only places we can attain now are 7th and 8th which are currently filled by Edinburgh (49 points + 44) and Benetton (49 points -14) but they have to play each other in Round 18.
The Lions are in 9th (49 points +133) with Connacht in 10th (45 points -2) and then Ospreys (45 points -39).
The fixtures that we need to keep an eye on are...
Leinster v Connacht on Friday May 31st >>> likely Leinster win with Connacht maybe getting a losing BP?
Stormers v Lions on Saturday June 1st >>> likely Stormers win with Lions getting a losing BP?
Benetton v Edinburgh on Saturday June 1st >>> 50:50 but only one team can win
and obviously
Cardiff v Ospreys on Saturday June 1st where we need a 5 pointer.
I predict that Connacht will lose to Leinster and at best finish on 46 points.
I predict that the Ospreys will beat Cardiff but a try BP may be too hard to come by and we finish on 49 points.
I predict that the Stormers beat the Lions who finish on 49 points.
I predict that Benetton will beat Edinburgh and finish on 53 points with Edinburgh finishing on 49 points.
I think we will just miss out. In terms of other results much will depend on what the likes of Munster and Leinster need for home play off advantage from the final games. Losing to a basement side at Rodney Parade will probable be the difference and that Cutty hammy gainst Munster still hurts as does the blown fourth try last week from that needless interception. I think going forward the squad is not yet ready to mix with the champions Cup big boys at full strength and a run into the knockouts is more likely next year in the challenge cup.
Are any of the Irish teams playing each other on the last weekend ? Not that I am one to start conspiracy theories, but I reckon if Connacht are playing Leinster away, they may pull off a shock result. ... I've just checked the fixtures, guess who are playing each other on the last weekend.